Xu Changming: the “3060 dual carbon” target will have a profound impact on the development of new energy commercial vehicles

2022-08-06 0 By

The commercial vehicle market in 2021 is going through ups and downs. How will the “3060 dual carbon” target lead the development of the new energy commercial vehicle industry from the macro level?The “3060 dual carbon” target will have a profound impact on the development of new energy commercial vehicles in China, Xu Changming, deputy director of the State Information Center, said at the 2022 China Commercial Vehicle Industry Conference.Xu Changming, deputy director of the State Information Center, said that according to relevant data, global carbon emissions reached 33.51 billion tons in 2018 and are still increasing every year.According to the statistics of carbon emissions of major countries, China accounted for 28.6% of global carbon emissions with 9.57 billion tons, followed by the United States with 4.77 billion tons and the European Union with 3.15 billion tons and 9.4%.In terms of the annual change in carbon emissions of major countries, the United States and the European Union basically reached their peak in the 1990s or 2000, and are gradually decreasing now.The red line in the graph above is the amount of carbon emitted in our country every year, and the curve shows that we’re still moving up.Xu Changming further analysis, from the perspective of China’s carbon emission structure, data in 2018 showed that China’s carbon emissions from electricity and heat accounted for 51.4%, 28% for industry, and only 9.6% for transportation.Although the carbon emission of transportation industry is relatively small in terms of data, it will be under great pressure under the influence of dual carbon targets in the future.Xu Changming, deputy director of the State Information Center, said that in the EU, carbon emissions from the transport sector accounted for 27.9 percent of the total. From the perspective of developed countries, it is a basic law that China’s carbon emissions from the transport sector will gradually increase in the future.It is reported that China’s car ownership in 2020 is 270 million, is expected to reach 350 million in 2025, about 420 million in 2030, an annual increase of nearly 20 million, which means the number of carbon emissions increased.He also said the most effective way to reduce emissions in the automotive sector is to electrify.Cars can be divided into commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles. In 2020, China has 230 million passenger vehicles and more than 30 million commercial vehicles. It seems that the proportion of commercial vehicles is small, but in fact, in terms of carbon emission, the total carbon emission of more than 30 million commercial vehicles is more than 230 million passenger vehicles.Xu Changming analysis, if the new energy support policy continues unchanged, in theory, new energy passenger vehicles will enter the stage of rapid development, the competition for fuel vehicles in various fields began to appear.In contrast, the electrification of commercial vehicles is still hovering at a low level.According to the sales data of new energy commercial vehicles, it peaked at 180,000 units in 2018, began to decline in 2019, and dropped to 111,000 units in 2020.In terms of penetration rate, new energy commercial vehicles once reached 4.1%, but it has always been hovering at a low level in the past few years.Xu Changming analysis, in recent years, the electrification of commercial vehicles and new energy vehicles are mainly dominated by buses, but the number of buses is small, and in many fields new energy has been basically saturated, if the new energy truck once started to accelerate, then the volume is very large.At present, the penetration rate of new energy trucks is only 1.3%.Xu Changming, deputy director of the State Information Center, believes that under the dual carbon policy, commercial vehicles will have a far-reaching impact, especially in the use of the scene will be rapidly enriched, so the rapid development.For example, in mines, ports, coal, steel mills, cement mixers, muck trucks, cleaning garbage trucks and urban logistics, these fields are more suitable for the development of new energy commercial vehicles.Xu Changming admitted that the main reason for restricting the development of new energy heavy truck is still too high cost, and the future will mainly achieve cost reduction from three aspects.One is the price of the whole vehicle. With the growth of the volume, the price of the whole vehicle is falling. The pure electric tractor has dropped from the earliest 850,000 to about 720,000 this year.The second is the operating cost, such as the price of battery recycling after 5 years, and whether the battery can realize cascade utilization.The third is electricity price, using peak-valley electricity price to achieve operating cost savings.For the future development of new energy commercial vehicles, Xu Changming said that it is expected to gradually cross from developed cities to general cities.From the international law, the more developed the economy is, the higher the proportion of carbon emission in transportation field.For example, the vertical chart shows the proportion of carbon emissions in the transportation sector in the whole country. France accounts for more than 40% of carbon emissions, while the United States accounts for more than 30%.At present, the proportion of transportation carbon emission in Beijing, Shanghai and other metropolises is about 25%. In the aspect of carbon emission reduction in such metropolises, the transportation sector must be one of the important work objects.Xu Changming, deputy director of the State Information Center, finally said that dual carbon will indeed have an impact on commercial vehicles. With the strong promotion of dual carbon policy, the development of new energy commercial vehicles in the future, especially in the field of logistics will accelerate.